Monday, July 20, 2009

Ongoing human rights abuses at root of Xinjiang violence

by Nicholas Bequelin
July 9, 2009
Published in The New York Times

HONG KONG — The eruption of ethnic violence in China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, the most deadly recorded in decades, seems to have taken both Beijing and the world by surprise. It should not have.

The violence, coming on the heels of massive protests in Tibet less than 18 months ago, reflects the profound failure of Beijing's policies toward national minorities, whose areas represent almost four-fifths of the country's landmass but whose population makes up only 8 percent of China's 1.3 billion people.

The Uighur people, much like the Tibetans, have a history, culture, religion and language distinct from the rest of China. Their homeland, the ring of oases that formed the backbone of the Silk Road in ancient times, was only incorporated into the Chinese empire in the 18th century.

And the effective colonization of Xinjiang only started after 1950s, when Beijing began to settle People's Liberation Army soldiers who had put down the short-lived independent East Turkestan Republic (1944-1949) on military state farms. The proportion of Han Chinese in the population of Xinjiang leaped from 6 to 40 percent as a result of state-sponsored population transfers from other parts of China.

A second massive assimilation drive was initiated in the 1990s, prompted in part by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and Beijing's fear of instability in the region. This time, instead of relying on forcible population transfers, Beijing created economic incentives to attract new Han settlers. In less than a decade, an ambitious program called the "Big Development of the Northwest" brought between one and two million new Chinese migrants to Xinjiang.

Economic development surged, spurred by a combination of massive subsidies, oil exploitation and rapid urbanization. But the Uighurs were not part of the rising tide. Resentment over job discrimination and loss of lands swelled, combined with anger at China's religion policies and the stream of new settlers.

The government's response was purely repressive. Already sharp limits on religious and cultural expression were further tightened. Any expression of dissent became synonymous with advocating "separatism" — a crime under Chinese law that can carry the death penalty.

Any sign of ethnic distinctiveness outside of the sanitized version promoted by the state was denounced as a plot by "separatist forces abroad." After a failed uprising in the city of Yining in February 1997, the authorities launched a massive crackdown that led to tens of thousands of arrests and dozens of executions.

For most Uighurs, Xinjiang increasingly became a police state, where they lived in fear of arrest for the slightest sign of disloyalty toward Beijing.

Even prison officials started to complain to Beijing that prison and labor camps across the region had become jam-packed. Isolated acts of anti-state violence, such as the assassination of Uighur "collaborators," attacks against police stations and the explosion of two bombs in Urumqi buses in February 1998 only reinforced the determination of the state to increase its repression.

After the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S., the Chinese began to justify its campaigns in Xinjiang as a contribution to the global war on terror. China also used its growing international influence to secure cooperation from neighboring states to arrest and deport Uighurs who had fled persecution.

Although there is no dispute that clandestine Uighur groups have from time to time carried out violent attacks — most recently in a series of bombings and attacks on Chinese soldiers just before the Olympic Games — the massive propaganda offensive about the threat of "East Turkestan" terrorism drove Chinese public opinion toward an even more negative perception of the Uighur people, who in turn felt increasingly ostracized and discriminated against.

Beijing's accelerated attempt over the past few years to forcibly refashion Uighur identity has also fueled growing resentment. Following Xinjiang Party Secretary Wang Lequan's declaration in 2002 that the Uighur language was "out of step with the 21st century," the government started to shift the entire education system to Mandarin, replacing Uighur teachers with newly arrived Han Chinese. The authorities also organized public burnings of Uighur books. Control over religion was extended last year to prohibit traditional customs such as religious weddings, burials or pilgrimages to the tombs of local saints.

Earlier this year, the government suddenly announced plans to raze the city of Kashgar, the centuries-old cultural center of the Uighur civilization and one of the only remaining examples of traditional central Asian architecture. In a few weeks, the old city will have almost entirely disappeared, forcing out 50,000 families to newly constructed, soulless modern buildings.

This is the backdrop against which Uighurs reacted to graphic images circulating on the Internet last week of Uighur workers being beaten to death by Chinese coworkers in a Guangdong factory. They took to the streets.

Unless the government addresses the root causes of ethnic tensions and ends its systemic human rights violations, the chances of more violence will remain high.

Nicholas Bequelin is a senior Asia researcher for Human Rights Watch.

 

Source: http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/07/09/behind-violence-xinjiang

 
 

Mauritania slaves: 500.000 born into continuing slavery

SOS Esclaves have been awarded the 2009 Anti-Slavery Award for nearly 15 years of fighting slavery in Mauritania, a country where an estimated 18 per cent of the population, or 600,000 people, are born and continue to live in slavery.

Receiving the award on Wednesday 27 May 2009 at Chatham House in London on behalf of the organisation is SOS Esclaves president, 64-year-old Boubacar Messaoud.

Boubacar Messaoud is himself the son of slaves and was one of the first people to denounce slavery in Mauritania. He has also been imprisoned three times for fighting against slavery in his country.

As recently as 2 April 2009, Boubacar was targeted as an anti-slavery activist and narrowly avoided death after being beaten unconscious by police at a rally in Mauritania's capital Nouakchott.

Boubacar said: "Slavery in Mauritania is a hidden practice but exists everywhere. Just because people are not in chains or publicly beaten by their masters does not mean they are free. The only thing that slaves know in Mauritania is slavery. All they know is their masters."

While slavery in Mauritania has existed for centuries, today virtually all cases involve Hratine (Arabic speaking descendants of black Africans captured into slavery by Arab-Berber 'White Maures' hundreds of years ago) owned by White Maures masters.

Those who are still in slavery are born as slaves, are inherited as property by their masters and receive no payment for their work. Slaves are expected to work every day. Men and children care for their master's animals, which are usually camels, cows, and goats. Female slaves generally work from before sunrise to after sunset, caring for the master's children, fetching water, gathering firewood, pounding millet and other domestic tasks.

Female slaves are frequently beaten and raped by their masters. Their children are also considered the master's property and, along with other slaves, can be rented out or loaned or given as gifts in marriage.

Over the years SOS Esclaves has helped hundreds of former slaves, while its activists have faced harassment, threats and even imprisonment for speaking out about slavery and campaigning for its end.

There have been several attempts to end slavery in the country, including the decree to end slavery in 1981, which made Mauritania the last country in the world to officially abolish the practice.

In 2007 the same year as Mauritania's first free and democratic elections, and after a hard fought campaign by SOS Esclaves, supported by Anti-Slavery International, slavery was finally criminalised by the new government.

However, the military coup of August 2008 has brought a halt to the progress made against slavery and renewed violence against anti-slavery campaigners. On 6 June, the leader of the coup, General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is expected to win presidential elections, which are being boycotted by opposition parties.

Romana Cacchioli, Anti-Slavery International's Africa Programme co-ordinator, said: "Despite the hard fought victory to criminalise slavery in 2007 the new law has not resulted in a single conviction. We are concerned that the lack of progress since the coup last August and the targeting of Boubacar Messaoud in April indicate that the new regime is looking to try and sweep the issue of slavery once more under the carpet."

Case study of a former slave in Mauritania

Kheidama Mint Barka, aged 48, said: "I was born a slave. I would look after the family's animals all day long. I would take the sheep to get water in the morning and in the afternoon I would take the camels. I never took a break and I was never allowed to rest.

"I would come back home in the evening completely exhausted. Sometimes I was so tired I would become clumsy and would make silly mistakes and I would be beaten by the mistress's youngest son. Sometimes to punish and frighten me I would be left down the well. My mistress's oldest son would also rape me. I always had to be at his disposal.

"Since I have been freed I have been earning a living with small jobs, preparing millet and providing other services for people. At least now I am paid for the work I do."

 
 

Monday, July 13, 2009

Market forces skewed: We can buy a 99-cent cheeseburger but not even a head of broccoli

 
FILM: Shattering the Myth of "Agrarian America"
By Sherazad Hamit

NEW YORK, Jul 8 (IPS) - "How is it that you can buy a 99-cent cheeseburger but not even a head of broccoli?" wonders Michael Pollan, author and co-narrator of the new documentary "Food, Inc.".

Without question, since the rise of the fast food industry in the 1930s, the race to deliver food faster, fatter, bigger and cheaper has changed the food industry dramatically.

"When McDonald's is the largest purchaser of ground beef, potatoes, pork, chicken, tomatoes, lettuce and apples, they change how [this food] is produced," says Eric Schlosser, author of the bestseller "Fast Food Nation" and co-narrator of the film.

This in turn impacts the price of certain foods. Instead of small local farms and a diverse range of products at the supermarket, there are a handful of companies and factories that process animals and crops to resemble foods we love.

It is in this context that director Robert Kenner and narrators Pollan and Schlosser seek to unveil the truth about "Agrarian America", a pastoral fantasy spun by the U.S. food industry.

The explicit point of the film is that the multinational-dominated industry has evolved into a dangerous animal. It is heavily subsidised and protected by the government and yet is barely accountable to any public food safety or regulatory body.

In fact, the industry itself is largely responsible for self-policing food safety and quality standards – a Supreme Court-sanctioned freedom that has allowed it to control farmers, minimise oversight and feed the U.S. appetite while simultaneously incurring significant human and environmental costs - costs hidden from the public by droves of corporate lawyers, the film argues.

In stepwise fashion, Schlosser and Pollan take us to the corn fields of middle America. We are told that in order to understand why foods like cheeseburgers are in fact cheaper than broccoli, we need to look at the impact of corn subsidisation and technology on the industry.

Subsidies make it possible for corn to be sold cheaply to multinationals which use it as feed for animals ill-equipped by evolution to properly digest it. In the case of cattle, the result is a mutated and virulent strain of bacteria - E.coli 0157:H7 - that when shed in manure, spreads from one animal to another.

High-tech industry, Pollan maintains, has compounded these circumstances. No longer is the food industry looking to better the conditions of feeding operations. It is looking for quick fixes.

"When approximately 400 animals are slaughtered each hour, and one meat patty consists of meat from thousands of animals, the odds of contamination increase exponentially," says Pollan.

Kenner's inside footage of putrid chicken farms and ground beef being cleansed in ammonia packs a subversive punch. For those who dismiss the food debate as an issue dwelled on by the nutritionally and socially conscious, Kenner makes clear: anyone who eats three meals, whether you eat meat or not, is at risk.

It is this consistent reality check that causes even the most apathetic viewer to question the safety of our food and the existence of adequate laws.

To that effect, perhaps the most shocking revelation is the narrow scope of authority of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, one of the main food safety bodies. Described as "toothless", the USDA is given the blunt end of the sword – although perhaps even its critics are too kind.

Through the tireless work of featured food safety advocate Barbara Kowalcyk, we are made to understand the true extent of its impotence owed to the slew of officials ensconced in government regulatory bodies like the Food and Drug Administration, Environmental Protection Agency and USDA who are now working to protect their former multinational employers.

While the notion of corporate cover-ups is unsettling, even more so is the responsibility of multinationals for a system of worker-slavery at food-processing factories. Through hidden-camera footage of factory working conditions and exchanges at border crossings, we are privy to part of the real human cost of producing food cheaply, an arrangement allegedly granted tacit approval by corporate higher-ups.

The remainder of that human cost is, of course incurred by consumers. Underscoring that fact is an encounter with a working-class family from Los Angeles struggling to make ends meet and put food on the table – a family for whom the food debate is truly a luxury, a pre-occupation of the wealthy.

The family's two adolescent daughters are living proof a generational endemic – obesity - the biggest predictor of which is income-level. One in three U.S. citizens born after 2000 will have early onset diabetes. That figure jumps to one in two amongst minorities. These are staggering statistics even to those who strongly believe obesity is a crisis of personal responsibility.

We have now come full circle to the cheeseburger and the broccoli, and are reminded that there are more forces at work than one's ability to resist fast food. There is a systemic skew towards cheaper, nutritionally deficient foods in our supermarkets. It is at this point that we are cued to ponder over nutritional alternatives and a plan of action to change the status quo.

We are presented with "organic". In an interesting "us" vs. "them" framework involving Stonyfield dairies and the Walmart super-store chain, respectively, we become proponents of the organic cause. The obvious downsides, namely price and availability, are immediately squared away and we are launched into a discussion on the profitability and sustainability of organic brands.

The conclusion is that organic brands can take down the giants if consumers leverage their purchasing powers.

"It is an easy decision to support organic. If it is clear that the customer wants it, it is easy to get behind it," says Walmart executive Tony Arioso.

After much food for thought, the documentary closes with prescriptions ranging from buying produce in season and eating organic to changing school meals and writing to political representatives.

While good in intention, the list falls short of addressing the main problem of the working class: that of getting a head of broccoli on the dinner plate in an affordable way. In lacking this dimension it falls prey to the prevailing criticism it set out to defeat: that the food debate is open only to the better-off.

What is required is a list that includes more avenues for involvement at different economic levels and a marketing strategy that goes beyond limited release viewers. Overall, "Food, Inc" is as enjoyable as it is informative.

(END/2009)
 
 

Uganda forest likely gone in 50 yrs

 
09 Jul 2009
Source: Reuters
A woman burns tree trunks to get charcoal for sale in Kadocha village in Kotido district, northeastern Uganda. Communities here say they have no alternative sources of energy, forcing them to deplete their forests.
 
A woman burns tree trunks to get charcoal for sale in Kadocha village in Kotido district, northeastern Uganda. Communities here say they have no alternative sources of energy, forcing them to deplete their forests.
OXFAM/Handout
* Uganda could lose forest cover in 50 years

* Tree planting needed to mitigate global warming

By Frank Nyakairu

NAIROBI, July 9 (Reuters) - Uganda will lose its entire forest cover in the next 50 years if the government does not embark on immediate efforts to halt rapid deforestation, a forestry expert warned on Thursday.

Forests and tree planting can help mitigate the effects of global warming by increasing carbon storage and cutting greenhouse gas emissions, experts say. Tropical deforestation accounts for a fifth of emissions from human activities.

"We have been observing using satellite imagery that over the last 15 years we have lost more that 1.5 million hectares of forest cover," Xavier Mugumya, Uganda's forest management specialist at the National Forest Authority, told Reuters.

"Uganda is likely to have very low if not completely no forest cover within 50 years if nothing is done to reverse this trend," he said in an interview.

The east Africa nation's forest cover has fallen to 3.5 million hectares in 2005, Mugumya said. Trees soak up carbon dioxide as they grow and release it when they are burnt or rot.

The G8 agreed on Wednesday to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent. A new U.N. climate agreement is due to be signed in Copenhagen in five months.

Rich countries agree they have to lead a climate fight after enjoying two centuries of industrialisation and pollution, but they disagree with developing nations on how much of the burden they should carry under a new treaty.

"If nothing is done to stop the drivers of deforestation then the sustenance the forests contribute to life and the country's biodiversity will be lost completely," said Mugumya, who is also Uganda's international climate change negotiator.

Mugumya said that Uganda's rapid population growth -- one of the highest in the world -- was hurting the nation's efforts to combat deforestation.

Individuals also hold 70 percent of remaining forest land, making it difficult to regulate depleting cover, Mugumya said.

"This will have to call for a concerted effort where individuals, governments and the developed countries will have to work together to reduce emissions and control carbon levels in the atmosphere." (Editing by Jack Kimball and Giles Elgood)
 
 

Eight Women Die EACH DAY During Delivery - MADAGASCAR

By Fanja Saholiarisoa
ANTANANARIVO, Jul 9 (IPS) - Eight Malagasy women die per day while giving birth, either due to complications during the pregancny or during delivery, according to a recently-published national Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).

As a result, Madagascar is unlikely to achieve Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, which aims to reduce maternal mortality by three quarters by 2015.

Madagascar's maternal mortality rate remains high at 469 per 100,000 live births, according to the survey. The key reason for this is postpartum haemorrhage (PPH), health experts say, which is defined as blood loss greater than 500 millilitres during vaginal delivery or greater than 1,000 mL during caesarean delivery.

PPH is a particular problem in resource-poor settings, like rural Madagascar, where access to health facilities and services is compromised.

In an attempt to improve maternal health, the Malagasy health department has now started to make the drug misoprostol, a drug developed to prevent gastric ulcers, but also used as an effective and relatively-cheap medicine to induce labour, available in 31 of the country's clinics.

"This project will save the lives of many women in Madagascar and is an alternative for deliveries outside health centers," explains Thierry Ramanantsoa, a doctor at the Marie Stopes private hospital in Antananarivo, which initiated the project in collaboration with the health department.

Ultimately, health authorities plan to provide the drug in all of the country's 111 districts. "If the health department managed to (provide misoprostol) in all districts, the country can reduce its maternal death rate by 12 percent," estimated Jean Pierre Rakotovao, country representative of Venture Strategies for Health and Development (VSHD), a Canadian NGO which financially supports the project.

Obstetric fistula

The second most common cause of maternal mortality in Madagascar is obstetric fistula, a medical condition in which a hole develops between either the rectum and vagina or between the bladder and vagina after severe or failed childbirth when adequate medical care is not available.

The condition is particularly common in teenage mothers. 157 out of 1,000 births are given by young women between 15 and 19 years, according to a 2004 DHS survey.

Teza Soa, a 17-year-old mother from Toliara, in Madagascar's south, lost her baby during delivery and later developed obstetric fistula. Her own life was saved thanks to a free surgery provided by health workers of the United Nations Fund for Population (UNFPA) a few days after the delivery. "It was a difficult experience for me. Fortunately, I could access these (health) services," recalled Soa.

Preventable diseases such as PPH and obstetric fistula, are rampant due to a severe shortage of skilled health workers on the island. Although 80 percent of pregnant women receive prenatal consultation, only about half of births are attended by skilled health personnel and only a third of babies are born in a hospital setting, DHS researchers say.

Access to health care also remains limited because 65 percent of the rural population lives more than ten kilometres from the nearest health facility, without transport available to get there.

"Lack of (access to) skilled attendants penalises many mothers," says Dr Edwige Ravaomamana, head of UNFPA's reproductive health programme.

But even if pregnant women manage to visit their nearest health facility, there is no guarantee that they will be able to access the services they need. Many clinics on the island have no special delivery rooms, and often there are more patients than beds. In some instances, women had to lie on wooden tables when giving birth.

Lack of resources

The local clinic in Belanitra, a rural community in Madagascar's north, is one such resource-poor health facility. "It's hard to carry out interventions here in case of complications and because of the lack of hospital beds," complained Dr Augustine Rajoronary, the main physician of the clinic.

The clinic has only four beds, while about 20 women give birth here per month. "Sometimes, we ask our patients to bring their own mattress, or the woman has to leave a few hours after labour to give room to others," he told IPS.

Hopes are high that the introduction of misoprostol and improved fistula care will make a difference to maternal mortality rates. Previous efforts by the national health department to improve maternal health have had some success, but did not sufficiently decrease the numbers of death.

A couple of years ago, for example, the Ministry of Health, Family Planning and Social Welfare started to integrate traditional birth attendants into the health system because to assist child birth in remote, rural areas. About 500 midwives were trained, and they facilitate about 60 percent of deliveries.

Yet, midwives do not have the skills or resources to handle complications at child birth. "Apart from the low use of services in antenatal clinics, there is the low rate of births attended by skilled personnel. Only 21 percent of births are medically monitored, and 66.4 percent take place at home," explained UNFPA representative Benoït Kalassa.

UNFPA provided $1.3 million to strengthen maternal health services in the country in 2008 and 2009. Apart from treating fistula, UNFPA provides free family planning services and caesarean sections in public health care centres.

(END/2009)
 
 

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Song, dance as communication medium among women, stimulating dialogue - AFRICA

DEVELOPMENT-AFRICA: Song and Dance to Empower Women Farmers
By Sholain Govender-Bateman

PRETORIA, Jul 5 (IPS) - Community theatre will be the main thrust of an innovative pilot project that aims to give women farmers stronger influence in agricultural policy-making in Southern Africa.

The Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Network (FANRPAN) is set to launch the Women Accessing Realigned Markets (WARM)project in July, after a funding agreement was signed with the Gates Global Development Foundation in June.

"Traditionally song and dance are integral parts of African culture and act as a powerful communication medium whilst also stimulating dialogue so this is what we are going to use," says FANRPAN Natural Resources and Environment Programme Manager, Thembi Ndema.

WARM's main objective is to provide a platform for rural women farmers to express their specific needs and to raise issues that help realign policy research agendas to meet them.

"Women are already engaged in farming and are seeking ways in which to increase their production and earnings."

Ndema explains that women farmers are often marginalised in business relations and have little control over access to land, seed and fertiliser as well as credit and technology.

Currently, women make up 70 percent of the total agricultural workforce in Sub-Saharan Africa. They are responsible for 100 percent of the processing of basic foodstuffs, according to the latest Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) statistics. Ndema says that community theatre will help bridge the gap between researchers' knowledge and the communities involved in the project.

"We need to get to the local level and increase these farmers' understanding of input markets whilst also educating researchers once we gain insight from the communities," says Ndema.

"Policy-makers lack the right information needed to inform policy development and more analytical statistics which can be used to fine tune programs and policies to reach the most vulnerable and needy segments of the population."

The project's planned interventions include providing the participants with access to credit and research services, technology and input and output markets whilst also boosting their participation in policy-making processes at community and national level through active involvement in agricultural organisations.

FANRPAN will get to grassroots level by encouraging community mobilisation of women farmers in order to communicate key agricultural messages linked to productivity, development plans and accessing of services.

"We will identify community champions who will help spread the message," says Ndema.

FANRPAN CEO Dr Lindiwe Majele Sibanda says WARM will be extended if it succeeds. It is set to run for three years in Malawi and Mozambique with universities, national agricultural and research organisations and organisations like the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), Oxfam, World Vision, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the Graça Machel Development Foundation all on board.

(END/2009)


Source: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=47530

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Demography potent factor in distribution of nations' power

An enlightening analysis from The Times Online.

Democracy's forces can't beat demography's power

Even in the age of high-tech warfare, shifts in the world population give a military advantage to 'underdeveloped' countries

The word jingoism originated from a music hall ditty of the Boer War: "We don't want to fight", it ran, "but by jingo if we do, we have got the men, we've got the guns, we've got the money too." A hundred years later it often seemed that Tony Blair was intent on pursuing the reverse policy — always up for a fight but painfully short of the means to pursue it.

The pressure that this put on our Forces is well known. But another factor that has had a huge bearing on our ability to wage war in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq has received much less attention.

For decades, strategists have maintained that raw numbers should no longer be a decisive factor in military thinking. In an age of high-tech warfare, professionalism, training and technology are supposed to be the keys to military success, not population. Yet in Iraq and Afghanistan none of this has helped anything like as much as the experts predicted — and demography has had a lot to do with it.

The problem has been that, even for a power as mighty and sophisticated as the US, occupying a Third World country with a fast-growing population means putting an uncomfortably large number of boots on the ground.

In Iraq, the Pentagon struggled right from the start to find enough troops to control the country after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Now much the same thing is happening in Afghanistan. Britain discovered this 90 years ago when we occupied Iraq in 1918 after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War. Iraq's population at the time was 2 million, compared to about 45 million in the United Kingdom. Even so we had to deploy more than 100,000 troops to hold the country in the face of tribal unrest and nationalist insurgency, and even with that many men we were hard pressed to keep control.

In terms of numbers the West still held the upper hand compared to the Middle East until well after the Second World War. In 1950 all the Arab countries together had a combined population of only 60 million, compared with nearly 160 million in the US and a combined total of 120 million for Britain, France, and Spain — the three European powers that then still ruled territory in the Arab world.

By 2000 the demographic balance had changed dramatically. The Arab world had increased fourfold to just over 240 million, not far short of America's 284 million. Over the same period the population of Iraq increased even faster, from under 6 million in 1950 to 25 million in 2000 — and 30 million today. In Afghanistan (which is not an Arab country) it went up at a similar pace, from 8 million to 20 million by 2000, and approaching 30 million today.

Thanks to their high fertility, these countries are also now much younger than the West. Between 1950 and 2000, the average age in America rose from 30 to 35, and in Europe from 30 to nearly 38 — the oldest of any continent. In Iraq and Afghanistan the average age fell over the same period; in Iraq it was only 18 in 2000 and 16 in Afghanistan. The result, as America and Britain have discovered to their cost, is that both have disproportionately large reserves of fighting-age men.

In a region that is already unstable, fast-growing young populations — usually with plenty of time on their hands — are highly likely to spell trouble, even if Western nations steer clear of them. Across the Middle East, youth unemployment was estimated by the International Labour Organisation at 25 per cent in 2003, the highest in the world.

And, as elsewhere in the developing world, more and more of the population are concentrated into the slums of large cities. Within ten years more than 70 per cent of the region's population will be urban, with a quarter living in cities with populations of one million or more. For any potential invader, demography like this is a nightmare.

Just how much of a nightmare was the subject of a famous article in 1995 entitled "Force Requirements in Stability Operations" by James T. Quinlivan, an analyst at the Rand Corporation and a leading authority on the subject.

In it he pointed out that "the populations of countries in the underdeveloped world have expanded markedly relative to the population of the United States. More particularly, the populations of Third World countries have expanded even more dramatically relative to the size of the American military."

Quinlivan's conclusion was that "first, very few states have populations so small that they could be stabilised with modest-sized forces. Second, a number of states have populations so large that they are simply not candidates for stabilisation by external forces."

Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq, it should be pointed out, is an especially large country by the standards of today's developing world. Iran is two and a half times as numerous as Iraq, while Pakistan's population is nearly six times that of Afghanistan. And what goes for Middle Eastern demography is also true of Africa. In 1950 the countries that now comprise the EU had a combined population one and a half times that of Africa. Now Africa outnumbers the EU by more than two to one, and by 2050 the ratio is expected to be five to one.

Many Western leaders, however, still appear to think that they can hold sway over both regions, much as they did 50 or 100 years ago. What such thinking ignores is the enormous shift in the balance of world population that has occurred since the days of empire — and is still continuing. Europe began the 20th century with 25 per cent of the world's population and finished it with 12 per cent. By the middle of the century that figure is projected to fall to only 7.5 per cent.

One of the most important lessons of both the insurgency in Iraq and the battle against the Taleban in Afghanistan is that not only is the power of numbers now on their side not ours, but in future the disparity is going to get only greater.

Richard Ehrman is deputy chairman of Policy Exchange. The Power of Numbers will be published next week by Policy Exchange and the University of Buckingham Press


Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6626293.ece